Analysis 140413

Yes indeed – these posts are coming thick and FAST! (not…)

Right… Since it’s impossible to trade or even look at anything during the day I have come up with an alternate stratagem. This also stems from my complete inability to multi-task.

Through the systematic practice of ‘doing a thing’ you get better and at the very least ‘doing the homework’ ahead of the next day then checking my planning against what pans out could be a good thing.  

A couple of people I follow have mentioned going into the day with a game plan and while I can’t really watch price live I thought there’d be some benefit in putting my own levels/ideas onto a chart and seeing how they hold up. Today I am pleasantly surprised.

Actually even before I opened a EURUSD chart I went over to Forex Factory’s trusty calendar and went through last week’s data to compare the Eurozone data results with the good ‘ole US of A’s. I wanted to get a ‘sense’ of positive or negative between the two contenders before looking at a chart. My conclusion was that as a whole the euro area data had been un-inspiring or at least not positive. Depending on the weighting US data seemed positive/ok.

One clear point looking ahead was that the euro’s chief wind-piece Draghi is talking tomorrow (Tuesday) and looking on an H1 chart we’ve been sideways following an up-swing. 

So… potentially more sideways, maybe it’ll turn into a pennant but a raging attack on 1.3200 seems somewhat unlikely unless someone/something drives it up. Then I had a look on an hourly chart and marked it up thusly… (is that a word?) so this is my ‘before’ picture.

140413 EURUSD H1

I’ll not bore you to tears about it but 1.3066 was what I wrote on the chart Sunday nite and it seems to have been a key point all day.

I put in the European open, US open and EU closes in as verticals below since this helps me get an idea of the passage of time across different chart timeframes.

140413 EURUSD M5 Results

What’s pretty clear is the selling all through the US session and then withdrawal of bids just now so we’re back at the low of the range from early/mid last week of 1.3040 – Is everyone selling euro’s to meet their margin calls in Gold? Who knows 😉

I guess we could see Asia take it sideways and then back up to 1.3066 again before breaking back down but I’ve not looked at this in any detail and I’m not staying up to watch either…

As they said in ‘Stingray’… “Anything can happen in the next half hour!” G’nite!

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2 thoughts on “Analysis 140413

  1. miles

    why not work with instruments that are moving when you do have time available to trade….jap pairs? Or longer term levels, 1h-4h etc. Just a thought

    Reply

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