Monthly Archives: June 2013

Trade 090613

Yep, they’re coming thick and fast now – lol

This trade was based on a lack of large sell orders at this point of the day. Price basically bleeding up following a serious gap down over Sunday night. The logic goes like this…

If you have a large sell position to execute you’re simply not going to drop this into the market on the wee hours of Monday morning after the pair has already dumped 100+ points

(Usually)

If you read ‘Markets in Profile’ or anything on auction market theory this will make perfect sense. Price auctions up looking for sellers and after a drop like this there are no sellers down here 😉

So there’s a (qualified) good chance that price will get back up to somewhere close to the top of the gap before the buy liquidity is available to mean this type of size actually gets executed… right? Right!

M5 AUDUSD 090613

Apart from the error I made which I’ve pointed out on the chart (trailing my stop too aggressively on/around my first target) I also could have waited for a better entry price.

I actually remember thinking ‘I want 0.9396 to buy this’ but then I decided not to wait and plumped for 0.9403 instead. The reason I mention this is that waiting could have meant I’d have been less jumpy with my stop and held the trade for longer.

This is all highly speculative of course but before anyone asks this was a +24 winner although yes, there was another +20 in there which I missed at one/both ends.

Right, back to work as obviously I’m still not a genius 😉

All my best – Robert

Trade 160413

Only just posting this trade from April and it’s now June… which goes to show how much time I am not devoting to this endeavor at the moment.

Complete stagnation may be something of an understatement but as previously mentioned this is mainly due to working a ridiculous amount.

So… this is probably my least stellar effort recently due to me having completely missed a key aspect of this ‘setup’ (which it isn’t really) or rather a key component in taking these types of trades so you don’t get your ass handed to you…

M5 EURUSD 160413

There’s way too much uncertainty here at this point to be trying to fade this move.

  1. Move up is +70 which isn’t generally enough to start trying to fade
  2. Not enough space/inefficiency from where I got in to the area shown in the rectangle
  3. Lack of contextual understanding… which I’ll explain below.

My observation is that multi-day ranges break from the opposite side… or to explain this another way… by the time you notice it’s in a range it’s time to start looking to buy at the BASE or sell at the TOP. I was out by about the 30 points out this cost me.

In this case I wasn’t paying a blind but of attention to the context of what I was doing.

M30 EURUSD 160413 context

The smart move would have been to sell later.

The smarter move was to actually get an idea of context and buy the retest @ 1.3110

Genius move? Buy the test of the low at 1.3030

I’ll settle for smart/patient at this point 😉