Trade 090613

Yep, they’re coming thick and fast now – lol

This trade was based on a lack of large sell orders at this point of the day. Price basically bleeding up following a serious gap down over Sunday night. The logic goes like this…

If you have a large sell position to execute you’re simply not going to drop this into the market on the wee hours of Monday morning after the pair has already dumped 100+ points

(Usually)

If you read ‘Markets in Profile’ or anything on auction market theory this will make perfect sense. Price auctions up looking for sellers and after a drop like this there are no sellers down here 😉

So there’s a (qualified) good chance that price will get back up to somewhere close to the top of the gap before the buy liquidity is available to mean this type of size actually gets executed… right? Right!

M5 AUDUSD 090613

Apart from the error I made which I’ve pointed out on the chart (trailing my stop too aggressively on/around my first target) I also could have waited for a better entry price.

I actually remember thinking ‘I want 0.9396 to buy this’ but then I decided not to wait and plumped for 0.9403 instead. The reason I mention this is that waiting could have meant I’d have been less jumpy with my stop and held the trade for longer.

This is all highly speculative of course but before anyone asks this was a +24 winner although yes, there was another +20 in there which I missed at one/both ends.

Right, back to work as obviously I’m still not a genius 😉

All my best – Robert

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5 thoughts on “Trade 090613

  1. Greyzy

    Hi Rob,

    I am confused by your trades (maybe because you are??? 🙂 ). Are your trades based on rules or on feelings (or something else)?

    a) If they are based on rules, then your discussion of the trades only makes sense if you compare your actions vs. the rules (which you might want to write down as well). To me it’s pointless to write stuff like “the error I made which I’ve pointed out on the chart (trailing my stop too aggressively on/around my first target)” if you moved your stop according to your rules. It’s also pointless to judge the rule itself by just one sample. So maybe there are no rules?

    b) If your trades are based on “feelings” then maybe you should rather discuss your feelings at the moment you moved the stop. I am no discretionary trader, so I cannot comment on how to improve your discretion, but I’m sure that beating yourself up for something that happend after your decision is not going to help. I would rather focus on what info you had at the moment of your decision, what was going on inside and around you then and try to learn from THAT.

    As a poker player I can tell you that it’s very difficult to learn from the outcome of single hands, because chance can turn a bad decision into a huge winner or the right decision to fold into great regrets when your lucky card actually did come (after you folded of course).

    Maybe you could explain what you (and we) are supposed to take from your post? And how do you in general try to learn from your trades? Do you have any structured method?

    Cheers,
    Greyzy

    Reply
    1. robertsweetman Post author

      Hi Greyzy

      First off – thanks for the comment which contains a number of valid points that I’m going to tackle in reverse order

      To be honest I’m (again) questioning the value of this blog both for myself and for anyone reading it. Certainly there’s a piece here associated with the ‘oh look I did something dumb’ aspect of the narrative BUT that was certainly getting old over a year ago already. You could probably sum up the content as ‘succeeding at this on a part time basis is extremely challenging and don’t believe anything you read from people trying to sell you anything…’ plus ‘TRAINWRECK’ in big letters. Can’t say I can hold a candle to people like this guy though…

      Certainly agree that ‘sample size’ is the order of the day which you’ll note isn’t something I’ve really had the opportunity to build up in a live environment. There are ways to work around this as you probably know using simulators or replaying through previous days which I’ve begun doing a lot more of.

      So yeah… onto my methodology or lack thereof… I guess I’d have to say that what I’m looking to do rests on the posts at the bottom of this page here by The_Wizard on ‘becoming a better trader and why no-one can stick to a plan’.

      The reason I’ve referenced this is because I’d suggest this post contains the essence of what one actually needs to do in order to succeed as a trader. Just as everyone’s perception of the world/environment is different it’s become clear to me the traders who are truly successful (by which I mean consistent) are the ones that evolved their own particular way of seeing the market. Now, I’m not saying you can’t learn from others (I’ve learnt a lot from all sorts of places) but if you want to really do well over time then this is the way to go – you need to learn from your own behavior in a structured way.

      This takes me neatly to the core of your option a) versus option b) observation. My belief is that unless it’s a 100% automated system the rules in part (a) mutate into a level driven much more by discretion (b) over time. Now, the point here is that no-one can really teach ‘feelings’ so this needs to be experienced and incorporated into a personal approach that is then inevitably unique. My answer would have to be that I’m looking to encompass both points (rules and discretion) so it would be wrong of me to argue with either of your observations.

      So back to answer your questions directly.

      What are people supposed to take from my post? Not much at this present moment is probably the best answer I can give.

      How do I try to learn from my trades? As you’ve pointed out the sample size and rigor isn’t there. Posting about them and general chat seems inefficient as you’ve rightly noticed… Based on the link in Forex Factory I’ve already started coming up with a more objective approach which I’ll do a post about some time next month.

      Do I have any structured method? The short answer is ‘no’ although… yeah… the short answer is ‘no’ and lets leave it at that for now. I’ve got a set of rules/parameters and assumptions I’m working with BUT again the sample size is lacking for me to be able to hang my hat on anything really concrete today.

      Thanks again for your comment since it’s helped shine a light on some confusion

      Best regards

      Rob

      Reply
  2. Pit Village Trader (@PitVillTrader)

    Hi Robert,

    Thanks for posting such an honest piece. Don’t question the blog, you started it for a reason that you obviously felt strong enough about at the time, so deep down inside, this blog is part of you trading journey right now.

    As for the trading, I would venture to offer one piece of advice; don’t overthink things too much and just keep backing yourself – whatever the reason you had to make the trade you made. Whether you’re right or wrong, it’s all good because with each passing trade, you strengthen your formulation of your own ‘unique’ way of trading, and THAT, I think, is the bit that’s important in these early years.

    Trust yourself.

    Reply
    1. robertsweetman Post author

      Thanks buddy

      Certainly sticking to the ‘feckin’ plan is not one of my strong suits. Last few trades have all gone to what I’d expect a reasonable target with me having bailed early…

      Still – if you don’t measure it you can’t improve it 😉

      Thanks for the advice/encouragement

      Cheers

      Reply

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