Tag Archives: results

Trade 090613

Yep, they’re coming thick and fast now – lol

This trade was based on a lack of large sell orders at this point of the day. Price basically bleeding up following a serious gap down over Sunday night. The logic goes like this…

If you have a large sell position to execute you’re simply not going to drop this into the market on the wee hours of Monday morning after the pair has already dumped 100+ points

(Usually)

If you read ‘Markets in Profile’ or anything on auction market theory this will make perfect sense. Price auctions up looking for sellers and after a drop like this there are no sellers down here 😉

So there’s a (qualified) good chance that price will get back up to somewhere close to the top of the gap before the buy liquidity is available to mean this type of size actually gets executed… right? Right!

M5 AUDUSD 090613

Apart from the error I made which I’ve pointed out on the chart (trailing my stop too aggressively on/around my first target) I also could have waited for a better entry price.

I actually remember thinking ‘I want 0.9396 to buy this’ but then I decided not to wait and plumped for 0.9403 instead. The reason I mention this is that waiting could have meant I’d have been less jumpy with my stop and held the trade for longer.

This is all highly speculative of course but before anyone asks this was a +24 winner although yes, there was another +20 in there which I missed at one/both ends.

Right, back to work as obviously I’m still not a genius 😉

All my best – Robert

Off the reservation and self preservation

Right up-front, before anyone else makes this comment I’m going to make it for them.

I am currently failing to learn this skill

Now this isn’t in some sort of ‘oh, woe is me’ post because I’m just not like that – oh no.

This is a statement of fact based on a recent trade where I went completely off the reservation. Friday I got involved in a trade with the following characteristics: –

  • It wasn’t my idea
  • It was in a pair I’ve not previously looked at
  • It was against the prevailing market mood
  • My entry point didn’t follow any setup at all
  • It was on a timeframe I’ve not traded in before

While this experience wasn’t particularly damaging financially it did lead me to question whether (after all this time) I have any business putting real money into trades when I am still pulling this sort of suicidal crap.

After much soul searching (well 20 minutes) I’ve pulled my live account and will be trading on demo till Feb. So that’s four months to get my proverbial s**t  together and prove to myself I can build a rising equity curve over time.

BEFORE anyone chimes in with the ‘demo account is not like real trading’ bleh, bleh, merh meh me noises… I know this. However I’d suggest that if you (or one if you’re pretending to be HRH) can’t do this off a demo system then there is literally no way on earth you can trade successfully with real cash.

I appreciate this isn’t exciting or interesting for people reading (sorry) but as I pointed out this trade was a universe away from everything I know that works…

Reading books, knowing setups and all that is valuable but they’re nothing without proper execution… and my execution really, really does suck.

So back to the drawing board, back to school, back to backtesting and back to demo. The upshot of this may be that my posting rate drops off a cliff but it was already pretty minimal. However, in this context going backwards may actually mean going forwards in the long run.

Let’s make it so ’cause now I’m just plain pissed off.

Ooh! Ooh! Statistics and Progress

So rather than continue to flail around blindly in the dark I decided to have a schlep through all the trades made so far from Jan’11 to present.

This was mainly to search for statistical support for my ‘feeling‘ that I’m finally improving as a trader.

Yes, this may come as something of a shock 😉

Keep in mind that I’ve worked full time (and more) through this entire period and continue to do so. This means that I’ve not really placed a lot of trades in comparison to most I guess. In addition I’m still getting to grips with the seriously useful information I need to process from my last post here.

Anyway to avoid duplication and because people always, always check this out I’ve written the actual info as an update to my Results Page here

Thanks for everyone’s continued support, comments and feedback

 

That was the week that was

So as I continue getting to grips with Jimmy Young’s approach to FX this week ended very slightly on a low for me as I reverted to ‘old style’ i.e. losing approach trying to substitute a system for using my brain…

As with so many things in life generally getting too attached to outcome means you can’t look at a situation rationally and make good decisions.

If some strategy or tool gives you a signal then it’s only the beginning, a hint to think about taking a trade. You still need to ask yourself why you should take the trade. One big part which I consistently forget is knowing where my target is for the trade…!

In other words Friday saw me taking a short with only a 1:2 reward risk ratio so immediately that’s a recognizably dumb idea. Now, I tried to short-circuit this by putting my stop way too close to the price.

Rather than accept it was a dumb position to take I compounded the error by changing all the criteria to fit the picture I’d become overly attached to.

Overall this week I’ve learnt quite a few things and am down this week a single point. Tools/Strategy is working but the trader (me) still needs more practice 🙂

For those of you who might be considering learning to trade please see updated ‘Read this first‘ page which now includes an educational video!

Thanks for reading

Additional progress measures…

I’m quite a fan of statistics since I’ve realised it’s difficult to progress without having a clear view of how you’re doing.

Going over my results I realised a few things…

  • This week’s results have beaten all of my previous ‘wins’ in the last 21 losing weeks
  • Last week and this week were achieved from 4 and 2 trades respectively
  • I missed a large number of profitable opportunities in this short period
While I have been keeping track of the time I’ve spent on learning this subject so far (354 hrs) that’s no longer enough and it’s becoming a slightly irrelevant measurement.

So I’ll be adding another target which is to make 5 good trades a week. Now it’s possible that doesn’t sound like a lot but I don’t want to put undue pressure on myself to enter crappy positions.

It’s also a somewhat limiting factor that I can only concentrate 100% on the European session open until 08:45 am because after that I need to be in my car 😉

However, I reckon this is an achievable target which will help me focus on getting better at trading through actual practice, especially now that I’ve got access to a set of tools which I’ve been successful with. Practising to improve at something is actually fun if you’ve got to a stage where you’re not continually throwing cash out of the window! Hooray! 🙂

So after next week I’ll add number of winning/losing trades to the results page and see how I get on with that.